Scenarios
are tools for ordering perceptions about alternative future environments in
which today's decisions might be played out. In practice, scenarios resemble
a set of stories, written or spoken, built around carefully constructed
plots. The benefits of scenario planning are great, but the process is
demanding and challenging and requires a strong commitment by senior
management to be effective. The following are some of the many benefits of
scenario planning.
Scenarios
can help you identify surprises and discontinuities in every area of your
business, from customer demand and adoption of new technologies to changing
market and regulatory environments. You can uncover competitive shortfalls
and identify potential new markets and opportunities for growth.
By
encouraging management to stretch beyond traditional problem-solving
approaches, scenario planning can help break old paradigms and prompt big
moves rather than incremental change.
Scenarios
allow you to evaluate and select new ventures or acquisitions long before
you make investments. Your company can avoid bad investments by recognizing
warning signals early and evaluating unfolding developments.
Scenarios can give your company a common framework and
language for discussing and dealing with complex conditions.
Integrating
scenarios into the strategic-planning process ensures that your company will
focus on future growth and renewal.